Русская Версия

Today, May 25, Boris Shikhmuradov turned 58 in Ovadan-tepe prison 70 km away from Ashghabad. The continued incarceration of Saparmurat Niyazov’s long-time foreign minister is a reminder of the incompleteness of that country’s political succession, especially since the international community is still denied access to or information about this well-liked establishment-turned-opposition figure.

Right now President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov is caught between potentially conflicting needs. To stay in power, the newly elected president must consolidate his power base within the elite and deepen the roots of his perceived legitimacy among the population.

He is trying to do both simultaneously, shaking up the government in recent weeks, and using the March 30 session on the Halk Maslahaty to introduce a program of agricultural reform.

The import of these actions still remains unclear. Some of the cadre changes seem quite positive. Berdymuhammedov got rid of the powerful, but reportedly odious, head of the Presidential Guard Akmurad Rejepov, who held this post since the time of Turkmen Communist Party boss Muhammad Gapurov, freeing Turkmenistan’s new leader to liberalize his country’s security forces should he so choose.

Instead, Berdymuhammedov seems more inclined to modify the repressive Niyazov-style system to serve a new leader—-him—-rather than to dismantle the security state that “Turkmenbashi” created. State media has been put on notice that they have to toe an ideological line - a confusing strategy as the content of post-Niyazov state ideology is still unclear.

Continue reading "Turkmenistan: Time to Move Ahead" »

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Русская Версия

Today, May 25, Boris Shikhmuradov turned 58 in Ovadan-tepe prison 70 km away from Ashghabad. The continued incarceration of Saparmurat Niyazov’s long-time foreign minister is a reminder of the incompleteness of that country’s political succession, especially since the international community is still denied access to or information about this well-liked establishment-turned-opposition figure.

Right now President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov is caught between potentially conflicting needs. To stay in power, the newly elected president must consolidate his power base within the elite and deepen the roots of his perceived legitimacy among the population.

He is trying to do both simultaneously, shaking up the government in recent weeks, and using the March 30 session on the Halk Maslahaty to introduce a program of agricultural reform.

The import of these actions still remains unclear. Some of the cadre changes seem quite positive. Berdymuhammedov got rid of the powerful, but reportedly odious, head of the Presidential Guard Akmurad Rejepov, who held this post since the time of Turkmen Communist Party boss Muhammad Gapurov, freeing Turkmenistan’s new leader to liberalize his country’s security forces should he so choose.

Instead, Berdymuhammedov seems more inclined to modify the repressive Niyazov-style system to serve a new leader—-him—-rather than to dismantle the security state that “Turkmenbashi” created. State media has been put on notice that they have to toe an ideological line - a confusing strategy as the content of post-Niyazov state ideology is still unclear.

Continue reading "Turkmenistan: Time to Move Ahead" »

Permalink | Leave a Comment

Русская Версия

Today, May 25, Boris Shikhmuradov turned 58 in Ovadan-tepe prison 70 km away from Ashghabad. The continued incarceration of Saparmurat Niyazov’s long-time foreign minister is a reminder of the incompleteness of that country’s political succession, especially since the international community is still denied access to or information about this well-liked establishment-turned-opposition figure.

Right now President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov is caught between potentially conflicting needs. To stay in power, the newly elected president must consolidate his power base within the elite and deepen the roots of his perceived legitimacy among the population.

He is trying to do both simultaneously, shaking up the government in recent weeks, and using the March 30 session on the Halk Maslahaty to introduce a program of agricultural reform.

The import of these actions still remains unclear. Some of the cadre changes seem quite positive. Berdymuhammedov got rid of the powerful, but reportedly odious, head of the Presidential Guard Akmurad Rejepov, who held this post since the time of Turkmen Communist Party boss Muhammad Gapurov, freeing Turkmenistan’s new leader to liberalize his country’s security forces should he so choose.

Instead, Berdymuhammedov seems more inclined to modify the repressive Niyazov-style system to serve a new leader—-him—-rather than to dismantle the security state that “Turkmenbashi” created. State media has been put on notice that they have to toe an ideological line - a confusing strategy as the content of post-Niyazov state ideology is still unclear.

Continue reading "Turkmenistan: Time to Move Ahead" »

Permalink | Leave a Comment

Русская Версия

The death of Saparmurad Niyazov will provide no easy fix for his country’s economic or political woes. But if the country’s new leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov proves as good a leader as he is a political survivor, then the Turkmenistan may actually succeed in using its hydrocarbon wealth to create a modern polity for its citizens.

Few countries get a second chance, and fewer still make good use of it. On the plus side, Turkmenistan has a dependable income stream from gas exports to help fund much needed reforms in the agricultural and social sectors.

The transition leadership recognizes the need for reform and has called for major changes in education and health care and even endorsed, albeit vaguely, the development of a multi-party system.

On the minus side, acting President Berdymukhamedov has very little experience in any of these sectors, save health care, where he was responsible for introducing the most regressive of Niyazov’s policies. With the exception of the country’s foreign minister, Rashid Meredov, most of the senior officials in key economic sectors are relatively new to their jobs, which is one reason why Berdymukhammedov, the most senior deputy prime minister was able to come to power.

While this could change after the February 11 elections, to date Berdymukhammedov and his inner circle, have sent no signals that political or apolitical refugees to return home. This sharply limits the available expertise, especially on key economic questions. It also insures the continued presence of a vocal opposition beyond the country’s borders that will question the legitimacy of the upcoming election.

Continue reading "Will An Incremental Approach Work in Turkmenistan?" »

Permalink | Leave a Comment

Русская Версия

The death of Saparmurad Niyazov will provide no easy fix for his country’s economic or political woes. But if the country’s new leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov proves as good a leader as he is a political survivor, then the Turkmenistan may actually succeed in using its hydrocarbon wealth to create a modern polity for its citizens.

Few countries get a second chance, and fewer still make good use of it. On the plus side, Turkmenistan has a dependable income stream from gas exports to help fund much needed reforms in the agricultural and social sectors.

The transition leadership recognizes the need for reform and has called for major changes in education and health care and even endorsed, albeit vaguely, the development of a multi-party system.

On the minus side, acting President Berdymukhamedov has very little experience in any of these sectors, save health care, where he was responsible for introducing the most regressive of Niyazov’s policies. With the exception of the country’s foreign minister, Rashid Meredov, most of the senior officials in key economic sectors are relatively new to their jobs, which is one reason why Berdymukhammedov, the most senior deputy prime minister was able to come to power.

While this could change after the February 11 elections, to date Berdymukhammedov and his inner circle, have sent no signals that political or apolitical refugees to return home. This sharply limits the available expertise, especially on key economic questions. It also insures the continued presence of a vocal opposition beyond the country’s borders that will question the legitimacy of the upcoming election.

Continue reading "Will An Incremental Approach Work in Turkmenistan?" »

Permalink | Leave a Comment

Русская Версия

The death of Saparmurad Niyazov will provide no easy fix for his country’s economic or political woes. But if the country’s new leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov proves as good a leader as he is a political survivor, then the Turkmenistan may actually succeed in using its hydrocarbon wealth to create a modern polity for its citizens.

Few countries get a second chance, and fewer still make good use of it. On the plus side, Turkmenistan has a dependable income stream from gas exports to help fund much needed reforms in the agricultural and social sectors.

The transition leadership recognizes the need for reform and has called for major changes in education and health care and even endorsed, albeit vaguely, the development of a multi-party system.

On the minus side, acting President Berdymukhamedov has very little experience in any of these sectors, save health care, where he was responsible for introducing the most regressive of Niyazov’s policies. With the exception of the country’s foreign minister, Rashid Meredov, most of the senior officials in key economic sectors are relatively new to their jobs, which is one reason why Berdymukhammedov, the most senior deputy prime minister was able to come to power.

While this could change after the February 11 elections, to date Berdymukhammedov and his inner circle, have sent no signals that political or apolitical refugees to return home. This sharply limits the available expertise, especially on key economic questions. It also insures the continued presence of a vocal opposition beyond the country’s borders that will question the legitimacy of the upcoming election.

Continue reading "Will An Incremental Approach Work in Turkmenistan?" »

Permalink | Leave a Comment