Over the past 16 years the international community has gone from seeing the independence of the Central Asian states as primarily a source of security threats to regarding the region as potentially a real strategic prize, despite its proximity to Afghanistan and the seemingly endless civil war and internal confusion there. Much of the change in perception comes from increased knowledge of the region’s energy reserves.

The changes in the international community’s assessment of the importance of the Central Asian states are also partly the result of a significantly altered global security environment. The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 brought about major changes in the ways in which the United States (US) exercised its global power. Since the planning of the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan, Central Asia has become something of a priority for US military planners and policy makers. Moreover, US military action in Iraq has led to the shaking up of the status quo in much of the broader Middle East, including Iran and Turkey. It has also led to a worsening of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States and with Europe, where most countries (the United Kingdom obviously excluded) initially opposed the US-led invasion, but have subsequently refrained from public criticism of the war effort. Given this environment, the Central Asian states appear less fragile than they did in the first years of their independence.

The region may appear less fragile, but it continues to harbor serious long-term security risks. Geography as well as the drawing of state boundaries means that ethnic groups, resources and infrastructure are spread across borders. The newly independent states are of necessity highly interdependent, although, perhaps understandably, the leaders of the new states seem concerned more with state-building and short-term national interests than with region-wide cooperation and development. It will only be by enhanced regional cooperation, however, that the five Central Asian states will find solutions to their security problems. In addition to this, in all five states economic and political reforms are incomplete, which has resulted in a build-up of unsolved problems. Unfortunately, excluding efforts in the commercial sector, the international community’s engagement has been fitful, with limited resources offered to help the Central Asians tackle the serious challenges the region faces.

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