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The death of Saparmurad Niyazov will provide no easy fix for his country’s economic or political woes. But if the country’s new leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov proves as good a leader as he is a political survivor, then the Turkmenistan may actually succeed in using its hydrocarbon wealth to create a modern polity for its citizens.
Few countries get a second chance, and fewer still make good use of it. On the plus side, Turkmenistan has a dependable income stream from gas exports to help fund much needed reforms in the agricultural and social sectors.
The transition leadership recognizes the need for reform and has called for major changes in education and health care and even endorsed, albeit vaguely, the development of a multi-party system.
On the minus side, acting President Berdymukhamedov has very little experience in any of these sectors, save health care, where he was responsible for introducing the most regressive of Niyazov’s policies. With the exception of the country’s foreign minister, Rashid Meredov, most of the senior officials in key economic sectors are relatively new to their jobs, which is one reason why Berdymukhammedov, the most senior deputy prime minister was able to come to power.
While this could change after the February 11 elections, to date Berdymukhammedov and his inner circle, have sent no signals that political or apolitical refugees to return home. This sharply limits the available expertise, especially on key economic questions. It also insures the continued presence of a vocal opposition beyond the country’s borders that will question the legitimacy of the upcoming election.
Despite the last minute constitutional changes, which facilitated Berdymukhamedov’s candidacy, the OSCE did decide to send a limited mission in to observe the elections, and welcomed the invitation by the interim government to allow them to visit. Moreover, the OSCE even found some positive features to the new election law, which provides for equal access of all candidates to media.
For many in the west, this government will gain little credibility until it begins to address the human rights abuses of its predecessor, and provides international observers access to the country’s political prisoners, some of whom were said to have staged an unsuccessful prison revolt upon hearing of Niyazov’s death.
In the end though, the real choices will be made by the Turkmen people. The first step for Berdymukhammedov is the easiest one. Absent any tradition of participatory politics, are likely to give even a relatively unknown political incumbent a resounding victory, not withstanding the help he will presumably get from Turkmenistan’s election officials.
But then, lacking the political credibility that Niyazov had accumulated, Berdymukhammedov is going to have to deliver on his promises of economic and social reform pretty quickly. Alternatively he will have to hope that political apathy and the remains of Niyazov’s security network will be enough to insure his survival. This latter option, though, will win him few friends in the west.
Martha Brill Olcott
